Fred Bowen's "The Score" column,
April 16, 2009, Washington Post

Can the Caps Score the Stanley Cup?

The Stanley Cup playoffs started last night, with the Washington Capitals taking on the New York Rangers. (Check the Sports section for the score.) The big question for Washington sports fans is: Can the Capitals win it all?

The Caps appear ready for an exciting playoff run. They won the Southeast Division and finished in second place in the Eastern Conference, with 108 points and a record of 50-24-8. Washington has a high-powered attack led by the National Hockey League's leading goal scorer, Alexander Ovechkin. Only two teams, the Detroit Red Wings and the Boston Bruins, scored more goals this season than the Caps.

Washington also earned home-ice advantage in the series against the Rangers. The Caps have been super tough at Verizon Center, with a record this season of 29-9-3. So the Caps should get by the Rangers.

Still, don't make plans for a Stanley Cup parade just yet. Playoff hockey in the NHL is tough and unpredictable.

First, most of the games are close. Last year, 38 of the 85 playoff games, or about 45 percent, were decided by one goal. That means in almost half of the games a fortunate bounce or a spectacular save is the difference. A team has to be good to win the Stanley Cup, but it also has to be lucky.

Washington has not always been lucky during the playoffs. The Capitals were eliminated in a heartbreaking series against the Philadelphia Flyers last year, losing the seventh and deciding game in overtime, 3-2. Longtime Capitals fans remember the 1987 playoffs, when the Caps lost a seventh and deciding game, 3-2, in a fourth overtime to the New York Islanders. The Islanders goaltender, Kelly Hrudey, made 73 saves that night.

Which brings up another important thing about NHL playoff hockey: A goalie on a hot streak can make all the difference. The Caps' starting goalie, José Theodore, was solid this season. But Theodore has a losing record in his playoff career. And the Capitals allowed more goals (245) than all but two of the other 15 playoff teams this season. I wonder if the Caps' defense is going to be good enough for them to make a long run in the playoffs.

Finally, most of the Capitals' key players are young and don't have much playoff experience. Ovechkin, Alexander Semin and Nicklas Backstrom are terrific, as is defenseman Mike Green. But Semin is the oldest at 25. And none of them has won an NHL playoff series.

So root your heart out for the Capitals. The team has had a great season, and it's always a thrill to be in the playoffs. The Caps are so loaded with young talent that they may go all the way some playoff season. But probably not this one.

Fred Bowen writes KidsPost's sports opinion column and is an author of sports novels for kids.

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